As soon as the rising trend takes shape, it will be long; as soon as the falling trend takes shape, it will be short; as soon as the trend reverses, it will be backhand; as soon as the trend continues, it will be retained and profits will be increasedIt doesn't need to make any forecast or study any data at all. Only a few moving average lines can solve all problems. It only takes less than 10 seconds to decide whether to open a position for a variety. As long as you don't deliberately lazy, you won't miss any decent market. You can make the same stable profit in all financial speculation markets, and making money is lighter than playing games It's much looser.
Of course, when the market fluctuation is small, it will lose money, even several times in a row. But the market can not always do so, otherwise there is no reason for the market to exist. In fact, the fluctuation of any market in recent years is quite large, which is the realistic basis for stable profits. Why don't so many people understand and accept such a simple truth? Why can't we get rid of the temporary profit and loss?
It is impossible to try to find the changing law of the market and make an accurate forecastAt present, the thinking ability of human beings is far from perfect. It can only be regarded as a hobby or a researcher who participates in the market rather than making money. For me, studying all kinds of prediction methods is a hobby. I can only test them before they are mature, but it is absolutely not allowed to affect my formal operation.
I don't know what you think. In my opinion, the judgment of most people in the market is not much better than that of a monkey, even a coin. The performance of tossing a coin to decide business is much better than that of most people. This is the core of the concept. There is no need to say more about the fund management and mentality. Everyone knows the truth. Whether it can be achieved or not depends on personal savvy
There are three kinds of market analysis methods,The first is basic analysis, the second is predictive technical analysis, represented by wave theory and Gann theory, and the third is non predictive analysis.People who think they can do as well as bafett in the future can certainly continue to follow the path of basic analysis. The second is just to add some imagination on the basis of statistics. It seems mysterious, but in fact it is just a tool for market critics to expand their vocabulary. Otherwise, they will only list data, which seems too monotonous. At present, it seems that no one has become a real master by these, except some with multiple packaging.The third one is the most simple and feasible one at present, which can be proved theoretically and empirically to be able to make stable profits. That's what the so-called Dao Zhi Jian is all about.
Nonprediction analysis also belongs to technical analysis, because it really needs and only needs to look at simple charts. Well, as we all know, there are three basic assumptions in technical analysis. Let's break them down.
First, the market reflects everything. This assumption is wrong. It is impossible for the market to reflect everything. It might be right to change it to "reflect everything about the ultimate behavior of the participants".It is impossible for each participant to fully grasp all the information, and they are biased against the information they have mastered, so it is impossible to make a completely accurate predictionThat is to say, the participants are always wrong, so of course the market is always wrong. The price formed by it is always different from the only correct price in theory, except when it happens. If the market can really reflect everything, then its price should always be basically consistent with the price on the maturity date, and there will be no fluctuation. However, the market after countless fluctuations will reach the end, can be said to take the wrong road, do is useless. I'm glad to understand Mr. Soros's ideas in my own way.
In fact, whether this assumption is correct or not is meaningless for technical analysis. Technical analysis relies on the real trend of the market. It is right not to care about how wrong the market is with reality. In this way, this hypothesis can be ruled out.
Let's look at the third hypothesis: history will repeat itself. This is necessary for wave theory and Gann's theory. If this is not true, they will have little effect. Whether this hypothesis is true or not, we don't need to care now, because it is meaningless for non predictive analysis. No matter whether the market fluctuation in the future is the same as that in the past, as long as there is enough fluctuation, we will have the opportunity to make profits.
Finally, let's look at the second hypothesis: the price changes along the trend. It's ridiculous that some people deny this. Is it a trend that the price has gone up a little? Of course. It's up ten points, so it should be counted more. It's hard to predict how long this trend can last, and it doesn't need to be predicted. If the trend reverses, the technical graph will naturally give a signal. Long term and short term are the same. Any fluctuation in the short term is a trend, and any trend in the long term is a fluctuation.Any movement may not be regular, but there must be a trend.To deny the existence of trend is to deny the existence of movement. Marxist philosophy says: movement is absolute, and stillness is relative. We can also apply it: trend is absolute, random is relative.
In a word, the non forecast model only needs one hypothesis, which should be correct, so we can be sure to achieve stable profits. The above is a brief description in theory.
In practice, of course, it is not appropriate to regard the fluctuation of a point as a trend, even if there is no handling charge, it is difficult to make profits. This depends on the excellent tool of moving average. For the moving average, different people use it to have different effects. It depends on personal understanding. If we want to complete the contents of theory and practice, we may have to write a book.
The same trading system, different people to use, the results are very different, what is the reason for this result? There are many reasons, such as fund management. Some people don't know how to allocate funds reasonably, are not good at the art of increasing and reducing positions, or have no mentality at all. But I think the most fundamental reason is that a person's trading system,In fact, it is the accumulation, summary and embodiment of his past life experienceThis is very important. I dare not say that I have had a lot of life experience in the past 20 years, but I am good at thinking about problems with the philosophy of seeking the root and knowing the bottom, which has benefited me a lot. My trading system is the crystallization of my efforts bit by bit. I try to consider all problems in theory, get proof, and then use the market to test. Therefore, every detail of the system is closely related to my humanity. This allows me to better overcome some problems inherent in the system. No system is perfect. One of the difficulties of non forecasting homeopathy operation is that we can't eliminate some fluctuations that don't change the trend in fact, and then we can remove too much of the head and tail parts. In this regard, I have achieved some initial results. Of course, this is very emotional, not easy to express in language. The foundation of a system is objective to achieve stable profits, but it does not mean that we must be completely objective. On the basis of objective, we should carry out artistic subjective design. I think this is a real trading system. A lot of people's mistakes are that they can't combine the two very well, or they are too subjective, which makes the element of luck too strong and it's difficult to make stable profits. But pure objectivity is not good either. For example, designing an automated trading program according to the average line, I think the result should still be better than what many people do, but it is definitely far from satisfactory.
For many people here, I am actually a novice in the market. In a word, I can say that I am very satisfied with it. That's OK.
We all make the same mistakes. We always dream of learning a universally applicable futures secret, but we are not willing to work hard on the basic theory. It is difficult to believe that we can achieve stable profits in this way.
Some friends have a very good idea, that is to apply the theory to technical analysis, which is much simpler than the basic analysis. More importantly, this can eliminate personal prejudice to the greatest extent and achieve a higher level of stable profitability. Mr. Soros's judgment is indeed very good, but his mistakes in recent years have almost brought him to a standstill. This is because in the face of great changes in the market (especially the rise of new technological revolution), Mr. Soros has made great progress,He still made his own sobering mistake: personal prejudice。 His idea didn't change in time to adapt to the new changes, which led to his failure. In fact, in the long run, such mistakes are hard to avoid. However, for the technical means with strong objectivity, it may be possible to achieve permanent and stable profits on the premise that the market will always have enough fluctuations, and the profits brought by these fluctuations can exceed the losses caused by too small fluctuations.
But you said you found an accurate prediction, I don't believe it. I insist that it is impossible for human beings to predict the market accurately. In fact, for stable profits, the current situation does not need to achieve this, or even roughly correct forecast.