How to analyze the latest trend of exchange rate, and from what aspects?

How to analyze the latest exchange rate trend? I believe that this is a question that many novice investors don't quite understand. Today, I'm going to answer this question. If you're interested, come and understand it together~

First, the relative changes of a country's social system and economic structure background will affect the long-term change of exchange rate, which is the basic factor to determine the long-term change trend of exchange rate. These basic factors mainly include the differences in economic growth, interest rates, capital market operation and their guiding effects on international capital flows. The analysis and grasp of the above basic factors basically constitute a fundamental analysis of the trend of the exchange rate of a currency.

Specifically, the fundamental analysis of a currency should focus on the various economic indicators (such as GTP growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, consumer confidence index, consumer price index (CPI), production price index (PPI), economic situation index (IFO), etc., because the economic indicators in a certain period objectively reflect a country's economic indicators in a specific period The economic operation of the period.


Second, market expectations will have a significant impact on the change of spot exchange rate. In addition to the above basic factors, the factors that affect market expectations include political factors (i.e. the impact of political stability and the change of government on economic operation), changes in macroeconomic policies and the possible impact of spot economic operation on long-term economic operation. The conclusion can be used as an important basis for investors to make rational judgment on the trend of spot exchange rate.

Third, international capital flows will have a significant impact on the exchange rate. When a country's current account "profit and loss" is fixed, the surplus or deficit of capital and financial account will directly affect a country's balance of payments. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the inflow of foreign capital in the capital market of a country in a specific period for judging the direction of the spot exchange rate of a currency.

Fourth, speculative trading will affect the change of spot exchange rate. The judgment of exchange rate trend should also rely on some traditional technical analysis tools to grasp the operation rhythm of foreign exchange market.

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